Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

698.9 – 468.36

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

776 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 41.35Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 293.17Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 364.38Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.29Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 224.08Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 205.99Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

698.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2231, 1690

Auto

128.5 18%

Teleop

423.9 60%

Endgame

151.8 22%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3835, 5614, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3835, 5614, 1577

Auto

112.8 26%

Teleop

210.7 48%

Endgame

112.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score698.9pts

Blue projected score468.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.5
Score range: 407–760
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1164 vs event baseline 337.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX282.9

128.5Auto112.8

423.9Teleop210.7

151.8Endgame112

73Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	169	86
teleop	395	154
endgame	207	138
foul	5	10
total	776	388

Result

Final score

776 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 78.7 pts