Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.35 – 356.43

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 131.67Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 177.13Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 73.55Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 185.94Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.71Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 124.78Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7845, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 1574, 3083

Auto

70.9 19%

Teleop

192.6 52%

Endgame

104.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4744, 6740, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4744, 6740, 1942

Auto

59.2 17%

Teleop

194.4 56%

Endgame

93.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score382.3pts

Blue projected score356.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 295–443
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 338.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

70.9Auto59.2

192.6Teleop194.4

104.1Endgame93.7

125Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	13
teleop	187	123
endgame	66	73
foul	0	0
total	325	209

Result

Final score

325 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 102.4 pts