Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

334.85 – 420.37

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 130.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 133.69Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 92.63Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.53Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 169.84Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 206.89Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.64Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5715, 3065, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 3065, 2230

Auto

63.4 19%

Teleop

191.8 58%

Endgame

74.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 7039, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3316, 7039, 8223

Auto

96.6 23%

Teleop

245.2 60%

Endgame

69.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.9pts

Blue projected score420.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.5
Score range: 274–481
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 340.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX307.7

63.4Auto96.6

191.8Teleop245.2

74Endgame69.4

42Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	69
teleop	126	116
endgame	71	42
foul	10	0
total	267	227

Result

Final score

267 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 130.6 pts