Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.23 – 364.62

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

236 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 197.04Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 54.97Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 134.22Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 110.08Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 154.75Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 99.79Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 6740, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4744, 6740, 1942

Auto

69.0 18%

Teleop

211.6 56%

Endgame

95.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4416, 3339, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4416, 3339, 5990

Auto

48.2 14%

Teleop

207.2 61%

Endgame

86.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score386.2pts

Blue projected score364.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.6
Score range: 304–447
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 341.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX296.4

69Auto48.2

211.6Teleop207.2

95.6Endgame86.5

33Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	63
teleop	122	154
endgame	86	90
foul	5	0
total	236	307

Result

Final score

236 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 pts