Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

549.87 – 401.1

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

513 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 83.28Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 242.69Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 223.9Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 137.87Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 182.27Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 80.96Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11070, 4590, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

549.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 4590, 3075

Auto

105.6 19%

Teleop

287.8 52%

Endgame

156.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7845, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 1574, 3083

Auto

70.2 18%

Teleop

208.8 54%

Endgame

108.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score549.9pts

Blue projected score401.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.8
Score range: 340–611
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 340.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.9Season APEX0

105.6Auto70.2

287.8Teleop208.8

156.9Endgame108.2

91Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	70
teleop	308	120
endgame	122	88
foul	0	15
total	513	293

Result

Final score

513 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 72.5 pts