Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

462.53 – 443.2

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.02Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 206.36Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 224.15Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 177.38Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 215.87Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 49.95Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3835, 1577, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

462.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3835, 1577, 5614

Auto

116.3 27%

Teleop

212.5 49%

Endgame

101.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 7039, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3316, 7039, 8223

Auto

89.0 21%

Teleop

276.4 64%

Endgame

66.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score462.5pts

Blue projected score443.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 382–524
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 764 vs event baseline 339.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX307.7

116.3Auto89

212.5Teleop276.4

101.9Endgame66.6

46Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	119
teleop	177	125
endgame	137	75
foul	35	0
total	445	319

Result

Final score

445 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts