Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

704.94 – 368.19

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

608 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 125.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.56Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 292.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 369.5Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 146.4Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.84Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 117.95Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

704.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2231, 1690

Auto

123.6 17%

Teleop

434.2 61%

Endgame

155.2 22%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5715, 3065, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 3065, 2230

Auto

58.7 16%

Teleop

203.5 56%

Endgame

100.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score704.9pts

Blue projected score368.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 336.8
Score range: 307–766
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 823 vs event baseline 338.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX0

123.6Auto58.7

434.2Teleop203.5

155.2Endgame100.4

80Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	72
teleop	343	136
endgame	126	2
foul	0	5
total	608	215

Result

Final score

608 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 125.1 pts