Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

350.1 – 371.38

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 79.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 94.72Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 116.28Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 139.1Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 130.47Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 172.22Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.69Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3065, 2230, 5715

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3065, 2230, 5715

Auto

71.2 21%

Teleop

198.9 58%

Endgame

73.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7845, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 1574, 3083

Auto

71.6 20%

Teleop

192.3 54%

Endgame

94.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score350.1pts

Blue projected score371.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.3
Score range: 287–434
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 348.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

71.2Auto71.6

198.9Teleop192.3

73.6Endgame94.7

51Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	86
teleop	163	156
endgame	67	15
foul	0	0
total	306	257

Result

Final score

306 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 79.2 pts