Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

712.44 – 556.18

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

903 – 475

Prediction correct · off by 135.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.9 ±42.7

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.79Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 297.72Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 367.93Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 83.73Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 246.66Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 225.79Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 2231, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

712.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2231, 1690

Auto

134.5 19%

Teleop

419.5 59%

Endgame

161.6 23%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11070, 4590, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

556.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 4590, 3075

Auto

107.8 19%

Teleop

289.3 52%

Endgame

158.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.78 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score712.4pts

Blue projected score556.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.3
Score range: 494–774
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1378 vs event baseline 343.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.9Season APEX637.9

134.5Auto107.8

419.5Teleop289.3

161.6Endgame158.9

56Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	160	102
teleop	499	227
endgame	229	141
foul	15	5
total	903	475

Result

Final score

903 – 475

Prediction correct · off by 135.9 pts