Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.11 – 329.32

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

369 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 100.93Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 145.5Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.68Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 131.62Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 89.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.36Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4416, 3339, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4416, 3339, 5990

Auto

54.2 16%

Teleop

193.4 58%

Endgame

83.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5715, 3065, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 3065, 2230

Auto

62.6 19%

Teleop

184.5 57%

Endgame

74.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score345.1pts

Blue projected score329.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 267–407
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 826 vs event baseline 342.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX0

54.2Auto62.6

193.4Teleop184.5

83Endgame74.2

21Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	115
teleop	187	269
endgame	87	73
foul	15	0
total	369	457

Result

Final score

369 – 457

Prediction missed · off by 75.8 pts