Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.84 – 81.77

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 119.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 53.93Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 71.43Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -20.53Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.82Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3083, 3339, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3083, 3339, 9303

Auto

37.9 23%

Teleop

98.6 60%

Endgame

28.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1942, 11478, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1942, 11478, 2230

Auto

20.7 30%

Teleop

37.2 55%

Endgame

10.0 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180.8pts

Blue projected score81.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.1
Score range: 22–241
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 332.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.4Season APEX0

21.3Auto4.1

70.9Teleop9.5

17.3Endgame-1.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	72
teleop	149	184
endgame	53	23
foul	0	0
total	222	279

Result

Final score

222 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 119.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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