Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.76 – 124.18

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.42Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 146.05Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.29Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 68.05Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.71Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 3075, 11329

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 3075, 11329

Auto

40.0 15%

Teleop

169.8 65%

Endgame

51.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8223, 6740, 1574

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8223, 6740, 1574

Auto

31.4 28%

Teleop

63.8 56%

Endgame

18.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score274.8pts

Blue projected score124.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.6
Score range: 64–335
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 332.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX0

40Auto14.8

169.8Teleop36.1

51.2Endgame6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	58
teleop	270	140
endgame	95	36
foul	0	0
total	436	234

Result

Final score

436 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 135.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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