Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.87 – 250.26

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.29Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.69Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 129.89Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 48.73Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 199.61Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.92Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8223, 11471, 7845

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8223, 11471, 7845

Auto

48.3 24%

Teleop

129.0 64%

Endgame

23.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6740, 1577, 4320

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6740, 1577, 4320

Auto

77.5 33%

Teleop

98.9 42%

Endgame

56.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score212.9pts

Blue projected score250.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.4
Score range: 152–311
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 339.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX282.9

48.3Auto77.5

129Teleop98.9

23.8Endgame56.6

31Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	76
teleop	143	140
endgame	55	77
foul	15	15
total	271	308

Result

Final score

271 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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