Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.82 – 345.18

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 102.26Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -2.93Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.49Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 206.13Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.6Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.45Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4416, 1937, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4416, 1937, 11471

Auto

38.8 29%

Teleop

66.0 49%

Endgame

30.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5614, 3065, 11480

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5614, 3065, 11480

Auto

68.9 21%

Teleop

191.0 57%

Endgame

73.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.8pts

Blue projected score345.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.4
Score range: 86–409
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 355.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

38.8Auto68.9

66Teleop191

30.8Endgame73.5

60Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	57
teleop	46	279
endgame	33	54
foul	0	0
total	119	390

Result

Final score

119 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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