Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

731.08 – 419.08

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

694 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 224.84Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 373.78Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 132.46Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.77Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 146.98Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 240.33Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5614, 1690, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

731.1 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5614, 1690, 1942

Auto

123.7 17%

Teleop

432.8 61%

Endgame

151.6 21%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11478, 5715, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11478, 5715, 4590

Auto

72.8 17%

Teleop

232.0 56%

Endgame

111.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.13 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score731.1pts

Blue projected score419.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 312
Score range: 359–791
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1104 vs event baseline 335.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX339.5

123.7Auto72.8

432.8Teleop232

151.6Endgame111.3

53Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	171	76
teleop	384	178
endgame	134	156
foul	5	0
total	694	410

Result

Final score

694 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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