Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.75 – 298.47

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 109.31Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.19Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.75Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 82.8Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.98Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 184.69Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2230, 11332, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2230, 11332, 1937

Auto

51.4 59%

Teleop

27.7 32%

Endgame

8.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11070, 4586, 1574

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 4586, 1574

Auto

53.6 19%

Teleop

150.5 53%

Endgame

79.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score103.8pts

Blue projected score298.5pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.7
Score range: 43–359
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 337.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

51.4Auto53.6

27.7Teleop150.5

8.3Endgame79.2

60Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	57
teleop	82	136
endgame	62	79
foul	0	0
total	190	272

Result

Final score

190 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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