Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.68 – 312.74

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.65Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.75Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 109.28Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 107.75Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.12Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 188.87Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3835, 2212, 3065

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3835, 2212, 3065

Auto

28.7 15%

Teleop

98.9 50%

Endgame

68.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5990, 11390, 3316

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5990, 11390, 3316

Auto

61.7 20%

Teleop

166.2 55%

Endgame

76.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score192.7pts

Blue projected score312.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.1
Score range: 132–374
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 337.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

28.7Auto61.7

98.9Teleop166.2

68.5Endgame76.1

42Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	28
teleop	78	154
endgame	31	13
foul	5	0
total	138	195

Result

Final score

138 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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