Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.3 – 214.95

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 210.21Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.78Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.31Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 41.74Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 100.66Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.55Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 11329, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7039, 11329, 2679

Auto

52.7 20%

Teleop

148.5 58%

Endgame

55.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11480, 4416, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11480, 4416, 3083

Auto

46.6 22%

Teleop

109.3 51%

Endgame

60.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.3pts

Blue projected score215pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 154–332
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 338.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX0

52.7Auto46.6

148.5Teleop109.3

55.9Endgame60.3

43Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	34
teleop	170	105
endgame	35	88
foul	0	45
total	264	272

Result

Final score

264 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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