Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.62 – 263.05

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.66Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 75.8Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.16Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 194.44Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.47Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.14Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11332, 11070, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11332, 11070, 8223

Auto

19.0 15%

Teleop

76.9 63%

Endgame

27.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 11478, 11471

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1577, 11478, 11471

Auto

78.7 32%

Teleop

110.0 45%

Endgame

57.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score125.6pts

Blue projected score263.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.4
Score range: 65–324
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 340.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX282.9

19Auto78.7

76.9Teleop110

27.1Endgame57.8

77Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	80
teleop	112	124
endgame	10	52
foul	45	35
total	182	291

Result

Final score

182 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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