Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

503.44 – 370.65

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

459 – 479

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 378.96Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 136.11Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -11.63Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.6Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 121.84Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 211.21Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1690, 7845, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

503.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1690, 7845, 1937

Auto

97.8 19%

Teleop

274.0 55%

Endgame

129.8 26%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9303, 1942, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9303, 1942, 3075

Auto

89.3 24%

Teleop

207.8 55%

Endgame

78.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score503.4pts

Blue projected score370.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.8
Score range: 310–564
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 938 vs event baseline 337.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX298.4

97.8Auto89.3

274Teleop207.8

129.8Endgame78.1

77Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	45
teleop	340	213
endgame	23	161
foul	0	60
total	459	479

Result

Final score

459 – 479

Prediction missed · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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