Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

446.87 – 114.3

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

550 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.9 ±42.9

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 136.41Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.61Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 278.85Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.8Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.05Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.45Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3339, 11480, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3339, 11480, 2231

Auto

67.4 15%

Teleop

276.1 62%

Endgame

101.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4320, 3835, 11329

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4320, 3835, 11329

Auto

15.9 18%

Teleop

45.1 50%

Endgame

28.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score446.9pts

Blue projected score114.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 332.6
Score range: 53–508
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 338.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.9Season APEX0

67.4Auto15.9

276.1Teleop45.1

101.7Endgame28.9

34Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	136	7
teleop	321	10
endgame	93	9
foul	0	0
total	550	26

Result

Final score

550 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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