Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.32 – 317.68

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.27Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 175.86Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.19Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.23Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 236.11Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 62.34Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4320, 4744, 4586

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4320, 4744, 4586

Auto

53.4 25%

Teleop

111.4 52%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2679, 4590, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2679, 4590, 9303

Auto

71.8 23%

Teleop

154.1 50%

Endgame

81.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.3pts

Blue projected score317.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.4
Score range: 160–382
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 355.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX339.5

53.4Auto71.8

111.4Teleop154.1

50.1Endgame81.4

61Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	71
teleop	65	134
endgame	64	40
foul	5	5
total	193	250

Result

Final score

193 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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