Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.5 – 324.87

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.86Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 94.17Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 184.47Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.85Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 198.14Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 107.88Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2679, 4416, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2679, 4416, 4744

Auto

66.2 25%

Teleop

114.4 42%

Endgame

88.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11390, 1574, 2230

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11390, 1574, 2230

Auto

77.5 26%

Teleop

148.0 49%

Endgame

76.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.5pts

Blue projected score324.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 224–386
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 338.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

66.2Auto77.5

114.4Teleop148

88.9Endgame76.1

44Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	98
teleop	238	119
endgame	48	71
foul	10	20
total	367	308

Result

Final score

367 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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