Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.26 – 341.04

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 230.18Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -17.3Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.38Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 149.1Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.14Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 158.8Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5614, 1937, 6740

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5614, 1937, 6740

Auto

46.6 20%

Teleop

137.0 58%

Endgame

53.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7845, 11332, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

341 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7845, 11332, 1942

Auto

66.1 19%

Teleop

186.3 54%

Endgame

91.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246.3pts

Blue projected score341pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.8
Score range: 185–402
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 341.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

46.6Auto66.1

137Teleop186.3

53.9Endgame91.5

54Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	54
teleop	142	83
endgame	44	39
foul	20	10
total	284	186

Result

Final score

284 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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