Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.98 – 327.98

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 120 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 119.16Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 104.02Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 123.8Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±57.8

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 223.72Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 62.38Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 41.88Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3065, 3083, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

347 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3065, 3083, 5990

Auto

30.1 9%

Teleop

201.4 59%

Endgame

109.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 8223, 4586

/ 100 compat

Projected

328 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3075, 8223, 4586

Auto

81.6 24%

Teleop

184.9 55%

Endgame

67.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347pts

Blue projected score328pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19
Score range: 266–409
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 344.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX298.4

30.1Auto81.6

201.4Teleop184.9

109.1Endgame67.8

59Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	96
teleop	149	94
endgame	40	21
foul	5	0
total	224	211

Result

Final score

224 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 120 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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