Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.19 – 493.66

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 682

Prediction correct · off by 134.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.82Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.66Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.71Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 359.04Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 120.2Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.42Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11471, 11329, 11480

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11471, 11329, 11480

Auto

31.3 25%

Teleop

68.5 54%

Endgame

25.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1690, 5715, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1690, 5715, 9303

Auto

85.9 18%

Teleop

276.0 57%

Endgame

122.5 25%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score146.2pts

Blue projected score493.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -347.5
Score range: 84–556
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 343.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX442.4

31.3Auto85.9

68.5Teleop276

25.9Endgame122.5

46Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	89
teleop	27	435
endgame	16	153
foul	5	5
total	65	682

Result

Final score

65 – 682

Prediction correct · off by 134.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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