Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.78 – 447.87

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

331 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 265.67Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.36Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.75Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 189.35Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2230General Angels

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 93.09Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 165.43Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 4320, 2212

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2231, 4320, 2212

Auto

48.1 15%

Teleop

204.1 63%

Endgame

73.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1577, 2230, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1577, 2230, 4744

Auto

115.5 26%

Teleop

197.3 45%

Endgame

129.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score328.8pts

Blue projected score447.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.1
Score range: 267–510
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 341.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.5Season APEX282.9

48.1Auto115.5

204.1Teleop197.3

73Endgame129.9

68Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	146
teleop	178	227
endgame	83	66
foul	0	75
total	331	514

Result

Final score

331 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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