Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.62 – 311.06

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

525 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 185.49Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 181.97Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.16Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.65Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 190.35Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.06Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 3316, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7039, 3316, 3835

Auto

91.5 24%

Teleop

223.4 59%

Endgame

65.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4416, 1574, 11478

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4416, 1574, 11478

Auto

52.7 17%

Teleop

162.8 54%

Endgame

85.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score403.6pts

Blue projected score311.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.6
Score range: 250–465
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 860 vs event baseline 339.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX0

91.5Auto52.7

223.4Teleop162.8

65.4Endgame85.7

41Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	57
teleop	290	161
endgame	125	82
foul	0	35
total	525	335

Result

Final score

525 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 72.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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