Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.27 – 350.08

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

599 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 153.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.51Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.73Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 335.03Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 121.26Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 165.28Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 63.54Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11471, 4586, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11471, 4586, 1690

Auto

103.3 28%

Teleop

183.3 50%

Endgame

83.5 23%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3083, 7845, 11329

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3083, 7845, 11329

Auto

50.3 15%

Teleop

196.3 57%

Endgame

95.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score387.3pts

Blue projected score350.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 289–448
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 337.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX0

103.3Auto50.3

183.3Teleop196.3

83.5Endgame95.5

86Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	34
teleop	363	121
endgame	130	95
foul	0	5
total	599	255

Result

Final score

599 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 153.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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