Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.86 – 350.63

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 81.38Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.5Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.98Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 134.3Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 170.1Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11070, 11480, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11070, 11480, 2679

Auto

27.4 18%

Teleop

67.9 45%

Endgame

55.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5990, 1942, 6740

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5990, 1942, 6740

Auto

63.1 18%

Teleop

214.0 61%

Endgame

73.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.9pts

Blue projected score350.6pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -200.8
Score range: 89–412
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 341.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

27.4Auto63.1

67.9Teleop214

55.9Endgame73.6

101Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	25	183
endgame	17	73
foul	5	30
total	69	304

Result

Final score

69 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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