Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.33 – 299.55

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 135.1Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 193.98Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 94.25Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.2Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 202.16Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 86.19Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1942, 1574, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1942, 1574, 3083

Auto

66.9 16%

Teleop

234.2 58%

Endgame

104.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11332, 1577, 8175

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11332, 1577, 8175

Auto

76.8 27%

Teleop

138.0 49%

Endgame

66.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.3pts

Blue projected score299.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.8
Score range: 239–484
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 337.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX282.9

66.9Auto76.8

234.2Teleop138

104.7Endgame66.8

117Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	100
teleop	147	74
endgame	86	63
foul	15	20
total	308	257

Result

Final score

308 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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