Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.2 – 407.18

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

390 – 412

Prediction missed · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.6 ±43.5

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 80.76Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 206.84Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 207.6Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 171.61Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 132.84Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 102.73Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2212, 7039, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 7039, 1577

Auto

103.0 21%

Teleop

266.5 55%

Endgame

119.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 3339, 4416

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3316, 3339, 4416

Auto

77.1 19%

Teleop

246.6 60%

Endgame

86.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score495.2pts

Blue projected score407.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88
Score range: 346–556
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 802 vs event baseline 337.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.6Season APEX296.4

103Auto77.1

266.5Teleop246.6

119.3Endgame86

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	79
teleop	181	223
endgame	86	95
foul	20	15
total	390	412

Result

Final score

390 – 412

Prediction missed · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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