Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.67 – 272.71

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.07Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 127.55Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.05Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.27Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.57Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 163.87Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11478, 3065, 4320

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11478, 3065, 4320

Auto

30.5 18%

Teleop

109.1 65%

Endgame

27.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11332, 5715, 1574

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11332, 5715, 1574

Auto

55.8 20%

Teleop

124.1 45%

Endgame

93.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score272.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104
Score range: 108–334
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

30.5Auto55.8

109.1Teleop124.1

27.8Endgame93.3

43Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	40
teleop	60	227
endgame	32	109
foul	15	45
total	116	421

Result

Final score

116 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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