Qualification · Qualification 37
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
567.61 – 0
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
615 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 705 ±43.2
Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 261.47Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77
8223Mariners
Unrated
Season APEX 0Event APEX 69.26Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0
4590GreenBlitz
Provisional
Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 236.88Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3
1937Elysium
Unrated
Season APEX 0Event APEX -40.13Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0
9303PORTAL
Unrated
Season APEX 0Event APEX -7.93Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0
3835Vulcan
Unrated
Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.84Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2231, 8223, 4590
86
/ 100 compatProjected
567.6 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2231, 8223, 4590
Auto
105.0 19%
Teleop
328.0 58%
Endgame
131.3 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 34%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1937, 9303, 3835
7
/ 100 compatProjected
-26.2 pts
~0.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1937, 9303, 3835
Auto
19.0 0%
Teleop
-40.2 100%
Endgame
-2.4 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 34%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.64
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score567.6pts
Blue projected score-26.2pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 567.6
- Score range
- -61–629
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
705Season APEX0
105Auto19
328Teleop-40.2
131.3Endgame-2.4
95Consistency144
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 86 | 19 |
| teleop | 401 | 24 |
| endgame | 128 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 45 |
| total | 615 | 106 |
Result
Final score
615 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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