Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

471.7 – 508.4

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 156 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.73Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 197.96Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 228.01Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±57.4

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 110.62Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 47.31Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 350.47Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11390, 7845, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11390, 7845, 1577

Auto

96.0 21%

Teleop

231.1 50%

Endgame

139.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2212, 2679, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2212, 2679, 1690

Auto

79.6 16%

Teleop

288.5 58%

Endgame

130.6 26%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score471.7pts

Blue projected score508.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.7
Score range: 411–569
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 668 vs event baseline 340.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX442.4

96Auto79.6

231.1Teleop288.5

139.4Endgame130.6

24Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	95
teleop	137	136
endgame	87	104
foul	0	0
total	333	335

Result

Final score

333 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 156 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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