Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.64 – 459.31

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

268 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -16.16Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 221.82Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.98Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 248.69Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.15Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 109.47Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9303, 5614, 11478

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9303, 5614, 11478

Auto

34.2 15%

Teleop

174.4 76%

Endgame

21.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2231, 4416, 3065

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2231, 4416, 3065

Auto

59.6 13%

Teleop

284.0 60%

Endgame

132.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score241.6pts

Blue projected score459.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -217.7
Score range: 181–520
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 799 vs event baseline 341.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX365.5

34.2Auto59.6

174.4Teleop284

21.6Endgame132.6

115Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	94
teleop	133	317
endgame	75	120
foul	0	0
total	268	531

Result

Final score

268 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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