Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

503.72 – 261.32

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

681 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 212.78Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 135.8Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 155.14Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.7Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 172.4Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 76.22Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4590, 1942, 3316

/ 100 compat

Projected

503.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4590, 1942, 3316

Auto

118.6 23%

Teleop

313.2 62%

Endgame

74.2 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3835, 4744, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3835, 4744, 8223

Auto

31.1 13%

Teleop

132.5 57%

Endgame

70.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.02 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score503.7pts

Blue projected score261.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 242.4
Score range: 200–565
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 968 vs event baseline 336.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX0

118.6Auto31.1

313.2Teleop132.5

74.2Endgame70.9

67Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	153	77
teleop	344	138
endgame	184	67
foul	0	5
total	681	287

Result

Final score

681 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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