Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.73 – 347.95

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 151.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 144.16Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.54Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -64.97Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 122.5Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 74.37Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 151.08Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1574, 5990, 1937

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1574, 5990, 1937

Auto

54.9 30%

Teleop

72.6 40%

Endgame

56.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5715, 11471, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

348 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 11471, 3339

Auto

56.9 17%

Teleop

187.4 57%

Endgame

85.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score348pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.2
Score range: 127–409
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 338.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX296.4

54.9Auto56.9

72.6Teleop187.4

56Endgame85.3

106Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	60
teleop	182	98
endgame	90	49
foul	35	5
total	355	212

Result

Final score

355 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 151.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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