Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.43 – 292.04

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.72Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.94Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.77Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.93Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 144.37Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 100.74Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11390, 6740, 11478

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11390, 6740, 11478

Auto

16.5 18%

Teleop

41.4 45%

Endgame

33.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11329, 3339, 5990

/ 100 compat

Projected

292 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11329, 3339, 5990

Auto

35.3 13%

Teleop

177.4 64%

Endgame

65.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score88.4pts

Blue projected score292pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -203.6
Score range: 24–356
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 355.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX296.4

16.5Auto35.3

41.4Teleop177.4

33.6Endgame65.6

72Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	21	154
endgame	35	38
foul	0	45
total	67	253

Result

Final score

67 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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