Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.83 – 140.29

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

3065Jatt High School

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 143.2Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.49Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 257.14Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11329G-Force

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 90.98Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.98Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.33Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3065, 11070, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3065, 11070, 1577

Auto

94.3 21%

Teleop

218.1 49%

Endgame

136.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11329, 9303, 11390

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11329, 9303, 11390

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

68.6 54%

Endgame

39.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score442.8pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 302.5
Score range: 78–505
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 344.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX0

94.3Auto20.5

218.1Teleop68.6

136.8Endgame39.1

73Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	18
teleop	229	38
endgame	107	16
foul	0	15
total	379	87

Result

Final score

379 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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