Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.43 – 381.87

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.74Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -4.52Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 80.21Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.8Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

78458BIT

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 187.56Rank 23Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 157.51Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11478, 3835, 3083

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11478, 3835, 3083

Auto

6.8 6%

Teleop

82.5 69%

Endgame

31.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6740, 7845, 4744

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6740, 7845, 4744

Auto

81.5 21%

Teleop

193.9 50%

Endgame

115.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score133.4pts

Blue projected score381.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -248.4
Score range: 71–444
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 645 vs event baseline 345.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

6.8Auto81.5

82.5Teleop193.9

31Endgame115.8

126Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	63
teleop	114	233
endgame	69	125
foul	10	5
total	219	426

Result

Final score

219 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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