Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.75 – 206.4

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 133.83Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8175Piece of Mind

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 94.73Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 116.19Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±57.6

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 95.22Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1937Elysium

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -53.77Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 164.95Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5715, 8175, 4416

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 8175, 4416

Auto

49.3 14%

Teleop

193.0 56%

Endgame

101.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8223, 1937, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8223, 1937, 3339

Auto

41.1 23%

Teleop

109.7 60%

Endgame

31.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score344.8pts

Blue projected score206.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.4
Score range: 143–408
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 350.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX296.4

49.3Auto41.1

193Teleop109.7

101.7Endgame31.4

78Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	14
teleop	165	96
endgame	68	25
foul	0	0
total	269	135

Result

Final score

269 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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