Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

564.86 – 400.72

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

736 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 136.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±42.9

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 159.62Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 87.11Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 318.13Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±57.8

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.49Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 206.81Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 185.42Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7039, 5990, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7039, 5990, 1690

Auto

101.6 19%

Teleop

305.2 57%

Endgame

132.7 25%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4320, 4590, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4320, 4590, 5614

Auto

68.6 18%

Teleop

240.1 63%

Endgame

75.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score564.9pts

Blue projected score400.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.1
Score range: 340–626
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1239 vs event baseline 339.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.1Season APEX339.5

101.6Auto68.6

305.2Teleop240.1

132.7Endgame75.4

88Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	111
teleop	433	265
endgame	160	112
foul	20	15
total	736	503

Result

Final score

736 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 136.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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