Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

233.81 – 467.88

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

422 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 93.01Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 121.95Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.85Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.7Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 65.63Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 293.55Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1574, 3316, 2679

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1574, 3316, 2679

Auto

77.5 35%

Teleop

88.4 40%

Endgame

56.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1942, 11471, 2231

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1942, 11471, 2231

Auto

73.7 16%

Teleop

294.9 64%

Endgame

91.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score233.8pts

Blue projected score467.9pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -234.1
Score range: 174–528
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 926 vs event baseline 334.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX365.5

77.5Auto73.7

88.4Teleop294.9

56.1Endgame91.2

34Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	108
teleop	237	300
endgame	91	96
foul	10	0
total	422	504

Result

Final score

422 – 504

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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