Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 75.19

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4586PRIMO

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -34.17Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11478Nexus

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.98Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11332Sunrise

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -51.28Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

11480EXODUS

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.58Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11390Habsor

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.1Rank 33Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3835Vulcan

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.49Rank 36Record 1-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4586, 11478, 11332

/ 100 compat

Projected

-54.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4586, 11478, 11332

Auto

32.4 0%

Teleop

-63.8 100%

Endgame

-31.3 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11480, 11390, 3835

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11480, 11390, 3835

Auto

20.0 39%

Teleop

1.8 4%

Endgame

29.6 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score-54.5pts

Blue projected score75.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.2
Score range: -62–137
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 346.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

32.4Auto20

-63.8Teleop1.8

-31.3Endgame29.6

106Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	68	19
endgame	10	11
foul	0	0
total	98	49

Result

Final score

98 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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