Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.82 – 325.91

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 710

Prediction correct · off by 238.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4416Skynet

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 163.69Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5990TRIGON

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 109.77Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9303PORTAL

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.36Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.8 ±42.7

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 115.46Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6740G3 - Glue Gun & Glitter

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -30.16Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 240.61Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4416, 5990, 9303

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4416, 5990, 9303

Auto

59.4 20%

Teleop

155.1 51%

Endgame

89.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3339, 6740, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3339, 6740, 1690

Auto

43.7 14%

Teleop

190.3 60%

Endgame

85.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.8pts

Blue projected score325.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.1
Score range: 248–388
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 927 vs event baseline 344.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX738.8

59.4Auto43.7

155.1Teleop190.3

89.8Endgame85.8

83Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	129
teleop	112	431
endgame	65	150
foul	0	0
total	217	710

Result

Final score

217 – 710

Prediction correct · off by 238.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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