Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

426.81 – 558.96

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

408 – 513

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±57.8

5715DRC

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 145.29Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2679Atlantis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.68Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1577Steampunk

Provisional

Season APEX 282.9Event APEX 254.84Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±43.5

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 183Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1574MisCar

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 152.18Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4590GreenBlitz

Provisional

Season APEX 339.5Event APEX 223.78Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5715, 2679, 1577

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5715, 2679, 1577

Auto

60.4 15%

Teleop

236.5 59%

Endgame

105.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3075, 1574, 4590

/ 100 compat

Projected

559 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3075, 1574, 4590

Auto

132.0 23%

Teleop

315.2 55%

Endgame

126.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score426.8pts

Blue projected score559pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.2
Score range: 366–620
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 921 vs event baseline 337.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX637.9

60.4Auto132

236.5Teleop315.2

105.1Endgame126.1

97Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	139
teleop	158	244
endgame	138	130
foul	0	0
total	408	513

Result

Final score

408 – 513

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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