Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.13 – 465.7

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 740

Prediction correct · off by 159.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3083Artemis

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.06Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4320The Joker

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.28Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8223Mariners

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 118.79Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±57.6

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.9Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 244.61Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5614Team Sycamore

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 150.19Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3083, 4320, 8223

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3083, 4320, 8223

Auto

33.1 19%

Teleop

113.1 65%

Endgame

27.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 2231, 5614

/ 100 compat

Projected

465.7 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3316, 2231, 5614

Auto

87.8 20%

Teleop

277.3 62%

Endgame

81.1 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.64 · Blue 3.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180.1pts

Blue projected score465.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -285.6
Score range: 121–525
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 965 vs event baseline 329.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX365.5

33.1Auto87.8

113.1Teleop277.3

27.8Endgame81.1

118Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	88
teleop	152	514
endgame	37	138
foul	15	0
total	225	740

Result

Final score

225 – 740

Prediction correct · off by 159.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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