Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

904.47 – 293.2

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

656 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 139.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1106.3 ±19.1

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 381.61Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 311.66Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3075Ha-Dream Team

Provisional

Season APEX 298.4Event APEX 211.2Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

3316D-Bug

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 159.82Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.39Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.99Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1690, 2231, 3075

/ 100 compat

Projected

904.5 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1690, 2231, 3075

Auto

177.4 20%

Teleop

511.6 57%

Endgame

214.7 24%

Strengths

· 1690 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3316, 2212, 11070

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3316, 2212, 11070

Auto

54.8 19%

Teleop

161.8 55%

Endgame

76.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.12 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score904.5pts

Blue projected score293.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 611.3
Score range: 229–968
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 355.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1106.3Season APEX0

177.4Auto54.8

511.6Teleop161.8

214.7Endgame76.3

76Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	40
teleop	376	176
endgame	164	46
foul	0	0
total	656	262

Result

Final score

656 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 139.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree