Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

370.48 – 407.07

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

4744Ninjas

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 140.38Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2212The Spikes

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 139.59Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1942Cinderella Tel-Nof

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 90.51Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±57.8

11471Neon

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 112.44Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11070RoboRex

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 87.97Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7039❌⭕

Provisional

Season APEX 307.7Event APEX 206.66Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4744, 2212, 1942

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4744, 2212, 1942

Auto

75.9 20%

Teleop

210.0 56%

Endgame

85.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11471, 11070, 7039

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11471, 11070, 7039

Auto

46.3 12%

Teleop

221.2 59%

Endgame

109.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score370.5pts

Blue projected score407.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 311–466
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 330.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX307.7

75.9Auto46.3

210Teleop221.2

85.9Endgame109.3

49Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	65
teleop	259	100
endgame	122	46
foul	0	0
total	440	211

Result

Final score

440 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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